In this contribution, we present an assessment, in terms of growth, employment and competitiveness, of the European Union Member States RTD policies in late 2004, the National Action Plans (NAP). The assessment in this paper is based on the results of a detailed macro-econometric model NEMESIS for the European Union countries. The results refer to two different periods: first, the “Time to Sow”, during which increased RTD effort is rewarded by few innovations. This is a period of delayed RTD maturation. The economy is demand oriented, and GDP and employment levels are multiplier based, while inflationary pressures and deficits abound. Second, the “Time to Reap”, when a virtuous mechanism of innovation based growth and employment is engaged, which should lead European countries to a less material, less polluting knowledge economy. JEL Classification: C53, D78, E17, O33, O38, O47.
endogenous technical change
Plan de l'article
A Time to Sow
The sowing period effects in NEMESIS
The sowing period implemented in the model: R&D increases
The sowing period: multiplier based GDP, inflationary pressures, deepening of deficits
From Sowing to Reaping: The mechanism of Innovation in NEMESIS
The knowledge variable
From stock of knowledge to innovation and economic performance
The calibration of mechanisms
A Time to Reap
Non stylized or new stylized growth period?
A non stylized growth period
A re-stylised growth?
Results for countries
Sectoral restructuring: An acceleration of history
The road to a new qualitative, less polluting and dematerialised economy
A main challenge for Europe: researchers’ education and training