In this contribution, we present an assessment, in terms of growth, employment and competitiveness, of the European Union Member States RTD policies in late 2004, the National Action Plans (NAP). The assessment in this paper is based on the results of a detailed macro-econometric model NEMESIS for the European Union countries. The results refer to two different periods: first, the “Time to Sow”, during which increased RTD effort is rewarded by few innovations. This is a period of delayed RTD maturation. The economy is demand oriented, and GDP and employment levels are multiplier based, while inflationary pressures and deficits abound. Second, the “Time to Reap”, when a virtuous mechanism of innovation based growth and employment is engaged, which should lead European countries to a less material, less polluting knowledge economy. JEL Classification: C53, D78, E17, O33, O38, O47.
endogenous technical change
Plan de l'article
1 - A Time to Sow
1.1 - The sowing period effects in NEMESIS
1.2 - The sowing period implemented in the model: R&D increases
1.3 - The sowing period: multiplier based GDP, inflationary pressures, deepening of deficits
2 - From Sowing to Reaping: The mechanism of Innovation in NEMESIS
2.1 - The knowledge variable
2.2 - From stock of knowledge to innovation and economic performance
2.3 - The calibration of mechanisms
3 - A Time to Reap
3.1 - Non stylized or new stylized growth period?
3.1.1 - A non stylized growth period
3.1.2 - A re-stylised growth?
3.1.3 - Results for countries
3.2 - Sectoral restructuring: An acceleration of history
3.3 - The road to a new qualitative, less polluting and dematerialised economy
3.4 - A main challenge for Europe: researchers’ education and training