2003
Annales de démographie historique
Autour du livre de C. Pooley et J. Turnbull
Migration and Mobility in Britain
since the xviiith Century London, University
College London Press, 1998
Steady State Mobility
Robert M. Schwartz
Mount Holyoke College South Hadley, Massachusetts
U.S.A.
Historians working in the period 1750 to 1930 are much
accustomed to writing about change. The spread of urbanization and
industrialization, the demographic transition, the decline in completed family
size, the rise of the welfare state—all are grist for their mills. In this
book, however, Colin Pooley and Jean Turnbull prove the exception to the rule.
Making use of family histories to study migration and mobility in Britain since
the mid-eighteenth century (Pooley, Turnbull, 1998) they find more stability
than change in patterns of modern British migration.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même
chose.
Their argument for stability and persistence rests on some
16,000 life histories collected from genealogists and family historians. Never
exploited before on the national scale, this evidence is in several ways
superior to data derived from the census because it enables the authors to
trace individual migrants, identify reasons for their moves, and examine the
variations in migration across occupation, marital status, age, gender, family
position, and stages of the life cycle. Chapter 2 discusses the sample and
carefully assesses its biases in relation to known population characteristics
from census records. Much over-represented are married men and women who lived
long lives, as compared to the under-representation of single men and women and
children who died young. The ability to study the mobility of those who
remained single is thus impaired. On the other hand, the geographical coverage
of the sample is close to being representative.
One of the shortcomings here and in other parts of the analysis
is the absence of measures of spread around the means of distributions. To take
the mean age of death as an example, the reporting of the means for the periods
1750-1819 (69.9 years), 1820-49 (68.6 years), 1850-89 (72.6 years), and
1890-1930 (74.4 years) reflects the bias toward long-lived adults as well as
the real change toward increased longevity, but the omission of corresponding
standard deviations deprives us of knowing the range and shape of the age at
death distributions. The authors, it must be said, do not claim
representativeness for their data and are open about its limitations. Serious
students of migration will want to read this chapter with care.
Equipped with this unique if somewhat skewed collection of
hard-wrought data, the authors challenge much conventional wisdom, while
clarifying and revising theory and empirical research in migration history. As
for conventional wisdom, the notion that British people today move more often
than their forbearers is said to be mistaken. This conclusion buttresses
studies in recent decades showing that pre-industrial populations of Britain
and Western Europe were more mobile than previously thought
[1]. In addition to the number of moves
individuals made, several other aspects of migration are studied across time,
including the distance of moves, the destinations and paths followed, and the
characteristics of the migrants themselves. To trace persistence and change,
historical periods are defined and compared, the major ones being 1750-1839,
1840-79, 1880-1919, and 1920-94.
As for the distance migrants moved, the predominant pattern
from 1750 consisted of short distance movements, typically within the same
region. Although they grant that the proportion of long-distance moves
increased over the period and especially in the twentieth century, the
increase, they argue, was a small feature in the overall stability of migration
patterns. Given the revolutionary improvements in transportation during
nineteenth and twentieth centuries, they continue, the degree of stability
seems remarkable—a point to which we shall return. Who typically moved? In the
eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the family histories show that they were
usually young adults moving in family groups, and less frequently on their
own.
With these continuities in place, several theories of migration
are laid to rest or revised. The hypotheses argued by Zelinsky, a major voice
in the modernization school of migration theory, held among other things that
modernization would go hand in hand with increased and accelerating rates of
mobility and with an expanding geographical extent of migration (Zelinsky,
1971, 1979, 1983 et 1993). Pooley and Turnbull find no support at all for these
ideas in their data.
More influential than Zelinsky’s theory are the so-called
“laws” of migration advanced by E. G. Ravenstein in the 1880s (Ravenstein).
They stand up a bit better to the Pooley and Turnbull critique. One such law,
that the bulk of migration since 1800 involved short distance moves within the
same region, is fully borne out. And Ravenstein’s Newtonian insight that every
migratory current flowing in is paired with a counter current flowing out is
upheld as well. In communities, therefore, the arrival of newcomers was
regularly accompanied by other inhabitants departing—another aspect of what can
be called “steady state mobility”. A third of Ravenstein’s propositions—that
longer distance moves tended to be from smaller to larger communities, up the
urban hierarchy so to speak—proves to hold only for London and not elsewhere in
Britain. Moreover, moves from large to small settlements—down the
hierarchy—were nearly as common as moves from small to large settlements,
according to the family history data. In rejecting the idea of stage migration,
Pooley, interestingly, sets aside the argument he made with Lawton in a
previous publication (Lawton, Pooley, 1992, 127-130).
Set aside also are Ravenstein’s hypotheses about gender and
rural to urban migratory flows. Contrary to these hypothesis, men did not tend
to move over longer distances than women. Except in cases of emigration to
foreign lands, the life histories show that women and men were more like fellow
travelers than the notion of separate spheres would suggest, resembling each
other in the distances they moved and in age, marital status, and family
position. The conventional picture that Ravenstein helped promote of rural
inhabitants moving to cities while city folk stayed put also fails to find
support. Instead, a pattern of rural and urban equality proves the rule: rural
inhabitants and towns people were more or less equally prone to pick up stakes
and move on.
After laying out the general patterns of mobility over
geographic space and historical time, Pooley and Turnbull turn to explore the
reasons and causes that can account for the patterns. This lucid and
painstaking effort is marked throughout by an admirable insistence on
complexity over simplification. In weighing the evidence and suggesting
explanations, they suggest how the interaction of multiple factors was at work.
Their treatment of employment is a good example. As we might expect, the search
for work was indeed the single most important reason behind the movements of
family groups and individuals. But work alone, they tell us, was the sole
motivation in only 1/3 of the 16,000 cases studied. Rather, in the majority of
cases, the decision to move was influenced not merely by employment but also by
considerations of marriage and housing, as well as one’s family position, age,
occupation, and other factors. The decision to pick up stakes and move, we
learn, was something of an overdetermined event.
The regional character of migration to secure jobs, to cite
another instance of multiple determinants, resulted from the interplay of
economic circumstances, psychological outlooks, and occupation. In prosperous
times, moving beyond one’s region was limited by the high cost of long-distance
resettlement. And when hard times set in, the desire to stay put and tough it
out in a community where one was known intensified. The inclination to stay put
also varied by occupation. Skilled workers typically moved further a field than
their less skilled compatriots, while farmers and agricultural laborers were
less mobile than any other group.
Not every aspect of migration was the story of persisting
patterns. The effects of declining family size, shifting attitudes to familial
obligation, and different stages of the life course reveal intriguing changes
in mobility. After the 1880s, the decline in mean family size meant that
average sized families were more likely to move over longer distances than
before. With the swelling of domestic service in the Victorian period, the
mobility of young women in service was increasingly determined by the mobility
of their employees. Migration after marriage—the key event in the life
course—changed considerably from the eighteenth to the twentieth century. In
the century of Dr. Johnson and Jane Austin, only 4 of every 10 newly married
couples moved into their own homes, while in 1890 to 1930 period nearly 7 out
of every 10 couples did so upon marriage. At work here, the authors remind us,
were numerous other changes, including the increased supply of inexpensive
housing, higher real wages, and a greater voice for women in household
decisions.
The propensity to relocate after retirement—or at the end of
the life cycle—increased dramatically during the xxth century. Among those born between
1750 to 1839, about 1/3 of women and men changed residence after leaving the
work force, often to be near their children. In the cohort born a century later
(1890-1930), nearly ¾ moved to another residence upon retirement. Pooley and
Turnbull point out that the meaning of these figures is difficult to pin down.
In sorting out the complexities, they note that mere survival into retirement age was
not as unlikely in the eighteenth
century as might be expected. In both the eighteenth and twentieth-century
cohorts the mean age of death was above 69.2 years—a higher figure than that
for the underlying population because their data is biased in favor of adults.
But that is not all. The likelihood of relocating upon retirement rose in the
twentieth century for other reasons, chief among them being the increased
availability of suitable housing, greater affluence, expanded welfare benefits,
smaller families, and increased longevity. In view of the biased data and so
many factors at work, they offer the qualified conclusion that
some part of the difference in their
figures is attributable to real increase in mobility upon retirement.
Here and elsewhere, the upward trend of longevity is a
complication—one that often lurks in the background as a confounding factor. It
casts its shadow, for example, over the major argument that mobility—as
measured by the average number of moves—remained relatively stable from 1750
on. To make their case the authors point to the likely under enumeration of
short distance migration in the xviiith and early
xixth century data, thereby closing the gap
between the average number of moves for 1750-1819 cohort (3.3) and that for the
1890-1930 cohort (7.0). If in this way they “bump up” the earlier figure, they
whittle down the later one by subtracting, in effect, the facilitating
influence of modern transportation systems. Instead of clarifying things, this
reasoning muddies the water and siphons off the meaning of the numerical
results. Adjusting measures of migration to neutralize the enabling factor of
modern transportation seems an odd and a historical maneuver.
Arguably, a better tack is to bring longevity out of the
shadows and to the fore. Other things being equal, people who live longer are
apt to move more often. To take this into account and improve comparisons of
mobility over time, one could begin by standardizing the historical cohorts by
age. Then one could compare, say, the number of moves per average life span.
Others more statistically savvy than I can doubtless suggest better methods or
refinements to disentangle longevity from the propensity to move and thus
control the confounding of the two. Once disentangled, the results would likely
offer better evidence for the claim of stability than the argument now
advanced.
As this reservation makes clear, Pooley and Turnbull have
produced a book that challenges received wisdom and stimulates its readers. A
work of originality in its conception and in its use of sources unexploited
before, their reconstruction of individual movements in space and time is
painstaking, their identification of patterns is thorough, and the reasons
behind them are laid before us in admirable breadth. After reading the book the
idea that mobility has been a stable feature of British life since the
mid-eighteenth century becomes clear and generally compelling. Questions
remain, of course, and debates over specific claims will continue fruitfully.
Many questions will concern the sample and its stated and unstated limits. All
of this will take us considerably further in the effort at understanding
migration and mobility in past time. In this and other ways the book is a large
success.
·
Lawton, Richard,
Pooley, Colin (1992),
Britain 1740-1950. An Historical
Geography, London, Arnold.
·
Pooley, Colin,
Turnbull Jean
(1998), Migration and Mobility in Britain since the
xviiith Century, London, UCL Press
Limited.
·
Ravenstein, E.G.
(1885) (1889), “The Laws of Migration”, Journal
of the Royal Statistical Society 48, 167-227; 52, 214-301.
·
Zelinsky, W. (1971),
“The Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition”, Geographical Review, 61, 210-249.
·
Zelinsky, W. (1979),
“The Demographic Transition, Changing Patterns of Migration”, 165-188, in
Population Science in the Service of
Mankind, P. Morrison (ed.), Liege, International Union for the
Scientific Study of Population.
·
Zelinsky, W.(1983),
“The Impasse in Migration Theory, A Sketch Map for Potential Escapees”, 21-49,
in Population Movements, Their Forms and
Functions In Urbanization and Development, P. Morrsion (ed.),
Brussells, Ordina.
·
Zelinsky, W. (1993),
“Classics in Human Geography Revisited, Author’s Response,
Progress in Human Geography 17,
217-19.
[1]
A good overview of this research can be found in Leslie Page
Moch,
Moving Europeans. Migration in Western
Europe Since 1650, Bloomington & Indianapolis, Indiana
University Press, 1992.