North-South technology diffusion, regional integration, and the dynamics of the “natural trading partners” hypothesis
Maurice Schiff
Yanling Wang
Based on static analysis, a number of studies argue that forming a regional trade agreement (RTA) is more likely to raise welfare if member countries are “natural trading partners,” while other studies claim the opposite. This paper considers the argument from a dynamic viewpoint by examining the impact of trade with Japan, North America and the EU on technology diffusion and total factor productivity (TFP) in Jordan, Korea and Mexico. Using industry-level data, we show that: i) technology diffusion and productivity gains tend to be regional: Jordan, Korea, and Mexico tend to benefit mainly from trade with the EU, Japan, and North America respectively; and ii) the dynamic version of the “natural trading partners” hypothesis seems to hold.
JEL Classification: F02, F13, F15, F43, O39Keywords :
North-South technology diffusion, productivity, regional integration, natural trading partners, Korea, Mexico.
• Introduction
• Analytical framework
• Data description
• Empirical results
— Korea
— Mexico
— Jordan
• Interpretation of the results
• Implications for the “Natural Trading Partners” hypothesis
• Concluding remarks
• References